Tuesday, June 14th 2022, 11:30 am – Bands of heavy rain will continue across Alberta and Saskatchewan, with widespread warnings and a local state of emergency in effect.
Widespread warnings remain in effect as bands of heavy rain will continue to pinwheel around an area of low pressure Tuesday and Wednesday across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Extreme amounts are expected with 75-100+ mm possible, with some areas in Alberta potentially on the hook for up to 150 mm through Wednesday. In response to the deluge, the City of Calgary declared a state of local emergency as a precaution late Monday afternoon. The rain is expected to intensify through the day on Tuesday, though with breaks in between the bands expected. More on the timing and impacts through the mid-week mark, below.
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THROUGH WEDNESDAY: PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES, THREAT FOR 100+ MM AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
A potent low-pressure system that crossed the border on Monday will meander over the central Prairies for multiple days. Rainfall warnings are in effect for much of southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan.
The system will bring enormous amounts of rainfall over the next 24 hours, with locally 100+ mm not out of the question for some of the hardest areas. The greatest rainfall totals will target the southern Alberta foothills.
“Rain will not be always consistent and breaks between the rain band can be expected, but heavy rain at times is forecast to continue through Tuesday and begin to ease for the hardest hit areas of Alberta Tuesday overnight,” says Kelly Sonnenburg, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.
Calgary is forecast to receive 100 mm of rain with this system and Edmonton could see up to 50 mm. Forecasters recommend staying alert for the risk of flooding in some areas.
“For more information on potential flooding impacts to your community, please refer to your municipality and the province of Alberta (rivers.alberta.ca) for the latest information and recommendations,” Environment Canada and Climate Change (ECCC) states in the rainfall warning issued for Calgary. “Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.”
WATCH BELOW: RIVERSIDE HOMES ARE ON ALERT AS WATER LEVELS REACH THEIR MAX
Flooding is likely, but the infrastructure at risk will be smaller streams, tributaries and farmers’ fields, as well as localized streets. The chance of rivers overflowing and becoming widespread is generally low because of the current levels, so extensive damage isn’t anticipated.
The City of Calgary however, has declared a state of local emergency as a precaution.
According to local media, Mayor Jyoti Gondek says this will help emergency services should a need for evacuations come to fruition, but she doesn’t foresee that being required at the moment. Any potential evacuations will depend on how the weather plays out over the next couple of days.
WATCH BELOW: HOW WILL IT COMPARE? IS THIS ANOTHER 2013 FLOODING EVENT?
Easterly winds will provide extra lift along the foothills on Tuesday to enhance rainfall totals further.
A deformation zone, or axis of heavy precipitation, is forecast to bring near 100 mm to parts of central Saskatchewan, as well.
Spewing over road ways East of Rosetown #skstorm water is half way up the RR sign post pic.twitter.com/5T2ow4jJkD
Spewing over road ways East of Rosetown Jenny Hagan LostInSk on Twitter: “Spewing over road ways East of Rosetown #skstorm water is half way up the RR sign post pic.twitter.com/5T2ow4jJkD / Twitter” water is half way up the RR sign post Jenny Hagan LostInSk on Twitter: “Spewing over road ways East of Rosetown #skstorm water is half way up the RR sign post pic.twitter.com/5T2ow4jJkD / Twitter”
There is still some uncertainty as to where the highest rainfall totals will end up, and some embedded thunderstorms within the system will also lead to additional rainfall totals. Snow will continue to fall across the Rockies on Tuesday as well, so people heading into the mountains will likely encounter some heavy wet snow in some areas.
“With the upper level low situated over southeastern Alberta, extra spin in the atmosphere could produce some funnel clouds Tuesday,” Sonnenburg warns.
Widespread wind gusts of 50-80 km/h are forecast across Alberta Tuesday, with enhanced gusts near the foothills that may reach 80-100 km/h. Winds will remain gusty Wednesday across Saskatchewan and southern Alberta with 60-80 km/h gusts expected.
Rain diminishes Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning for Alberta. Soaking rain will continue to extend from western Saskatchewan to northern Manitoba through Wednesday, and then easing off to scattered showers Thursday.
The system will send temperatures falling well below seasonal for the middle of June. After a seasonable weekend, daytime highs in Calgary will fall into the mid-teens through the middle of the week.
The active pattern continues in the long range, especially across Alberta. A few more rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely starting this weekend and continuing through the middle of next week. This will be highly beneficial for replenishing the groundwater and potentially wiping out the drought for much of the region, but also a risk for flooding.
DROUGHT VS. HEAVY RAIN: WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT ACROSS THE PRAIRIES THIS SUMMER
A couple days of very hot weather will spread from west to east across the southern Prairies this weekend and into early next week. High temperatures will reach the low- to mid-30s across southern Saskatchewan on Saturday, across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba Sunday, then northwestern Ontario on Monday and possibly into Tuesday.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest updates on conditions across the Prairies.